针对海上风电场通航安全风险评价过程中因主观权重与指标模糊性所导致的评价结果偏差问题，提出基于改进AHP（层次分析法）的海上风电场通航安全风险评价方法。从港口环境、自然环境、通航环境、安全保障四个角度出发，构建风险评价指标体系；分别利用AHP（层次分析法）与熵权法计算各评价指标的主观权重与客观权重，并对主客观权重进行归一化融合处理，获取评价指标的组合权重；利用模糊理论改进AHP（层次分析法）构建综合评价模型，结合评价指标的组合权重实现风险等级量化。实验结果表明：研究对象通航安全风险以中等风险为核心区间，不同区域的风险等级具有差异化；该方法评价结果与实际风险等级一致性较高，AUC值达0.895，显著优于对比方法，有效提升了风险评价的科学性与准确性，可为海上风电场通航安全风险管控提供可靠决策依据。
A navigation safety risk assessment method for offshore wind farms based on an improved analytic hierarchy process is proposed to address the issue of bias in evaluation results caused by subjective weights and index ambiguity in the process. Construct a risk assessment index system from four perspectives: port environment, natural environment, navigation environment, and safety assurance; Calculate the subjective and objective weights of each evaluation indicator using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy Weight Method respectively, and normalize and fuse the subjective and objective weights to obtain the combined weight of the evaluation indicators; Using fuzzy theory to improve the Analytic Hierarchy Process to construct a comprehensive evaluation model, and combining the combined weights of evaluation indicators to achieve risk level quantification. The experimental results indicate that the navigation safety risk of the research object is centered around moderate risk, and the risk level varies in different regions; The evaluation results of this method have a high consistency with the actual risk level, with an AUC value of 0.895, significantly better than the comparative methods, effectively improving the scientificity and accuracy of risk assessment, and providing reliable decision-making basis for navigation safety risk control of offshore wind farms.
2026,48(3): 65-69 收稿日期：2025-8-20
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2026.03.010
分类号：U668
作者简介：胡佳利(1993-),女,硕士,研究实习员,研究方向为应急系统建模与仿真及不确定性决策与建模
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