针对智能船舶航行风险评价过程中普遍存在模糊性与随机性等问题，本文创新性地引入了基于博弈论组合赋权的可拓云模型，用于系统性地评价智能船舶的航行风险。首先，采用双重标准风险过滤方法筛选风险指标因素，构建智能船舶航行风险指标体系；其次，结合层次分析法、熵权法以及变异系数法，计算各个风险指标的权重，并基于博弈论模型整合各方法的结果确定综合权重；最后，基于组合赋权—可拓云模型计算综合关联度，得出智能船舶的航行风险等级，实现对智能船舶航行风险的评价。本文通过不同时刻的航行数据验证了该组合模型对智能船舶航行风险的系统性与适用性，该研究结果可为海事监管部门及船舶运营企业提供理论依据，使其在航行风险管理与安全流程优化方面制定更加有效的策略。
Considering the prevalent issues of fuzziness and randomness encountered during the investigation of navigation risks associated with intelligent vessels, this study innovatively proposes an extended cloud model based on game theory integrated weighting to systematically evaluate these risks. Initially, a dual-criteria risk filtering approach is employed to select relevant risk indicators, thereby constructing a comprehensive risk assessment index system for intelligent vessels. Subsequently, the weights of individual risk indicators are calculated through a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), entropy weighting method, and coefficient of variation method. These results are then integrated using a game theory model to derive comprehensive weights. Finally, the comprehensive correlation degree is calculated based on the combined weighting-extended cloud model, thus establishing the navigation risk level for intelligent vessels and achieving a systematic evaluation of their navigation risks. The effectiveness and applicability of the proposed combined model are validated using navigational data collected over different moment. The findings of this study provide a theoretical foundation for maritime regulatory authorities and vessel operating enterprises, enabling them to formulate more effective strategies regarding navigation risk management and optimization of safety procedures.
2026,48(3): 154-161 收稿日期：2025-5-12
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2026.03.024
分类号：U664
基金项目：国家自然科学基金重点项目（52231014）
作者简介：王秀文(1998-),女,硕士,研究方向为智能船舶航行风险
参考文献：
[1] 张文君, 张英俊, 张闯. 基于HHM-RFRM理论的智能船舶航行风险识别与筛选[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2023, 23(2): 333-340.
ZHANG W J, ZHANG Y J, ZHANG C. Intelligent ship navigation risk identification and screening based on HHM-RFRM method[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2023, 23(2): 333-340.
[2] 邹志强. 复杂航行条件下无人驾驶船舶航行风险评估算法[D]. 大连: 大连海事大学, 2019.
[3] FAN C L, WROBEL K, MOONTEWKA J, et al. A framework to identify factors influencing navigational risk for maritime autonomous surface ships[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2020, 202: 107188.
[4] 张文君. 智能船舶航行风险评价与管控策略研究[D]. 大连: 大连海事大学, 2023.
[5] 杨仔豪, 张英俊, 邹宜洋, 等. 基于RFRM-有限云模型的智能船舶航行风险预警[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2024, 20(1): 172-178.
YANG Z H, ZHANG Y J, ZOU Y Y, et al. Intelligent ship navigation risk early warning based on RFRM-finite cloud model[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2024, 20(1): 172-178.
[6] 潘寒川, 刘丹阳, 张煜睿, 等. 基于组合赋权-可拓云的城市轨道交通线路运营安全评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(4): 160-166.
PAN H C, LIU D Y, ZHANG Y R, et al. Safety evaluation of urban rail transit line operation based on combined weighting and extension cloud model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(4): 160-166.
[7] 从明智, 陆红梅, 于治成. 基于组合赋权可拓模型的装配式建筑成本控制水平评价研究[J]. 建筑经济, 2024, 45(3): 65-73.
CONG M Z, LU H M, YU Z C. Evaluation of cost control level of prefabricated buildings based on combined weighting and extension model[J]. Construction Economy, 2024, 45(3): 65-73.
[8] HSU, WEN K K, KAO J C. The safety of ship berthing operations at port dock - a gap assessment model based on fuzzy AHP[J]. International Journal of Maritime Engineering, 2017, 159(A4): A377-A392.
[9] 陈赟, 陈玉斌. 基于HHM-RFRM的地铁隧道施工安全风险情景识别[J]. 长沙理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 18(1): 7-15.
CHEN Y, CHEN Y B. Identification of construction safety risk scenarios for subway tunnels based on HHM-RFRM[J]. Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology (Natural Science Edition), 2021, 18(1): 7-15.
[10] ABHINAV B, AGRAWAL, KASH BARKER, et al. Adaptive multiplayer approach for risk-based decision-making: 2006 Virginia gubernatorial inauguration[J]. Systems Engineering, 2011, 14(4): 455-470.
[11] 曹林, 卢厚清, 冯玉芳. 基于博弈论的评估指标权重分配模型[J]. 军事运筹与系统工程, 2019, 33(1): 11-14.
CAO L, LU H Q, FENG Y F. A Game Theory-Based Model for Weight Allocation of Evaluation Indicators[J]. Military Operations Research and Systems Engineering, 2019, 33(1): 11-14.
[12] 褚新胜, 盛高永, 张海云. 基于博弈论的煤矿生产系统智能化GRA-KL-TOPSIS评价模型[J]. 矿业研究与开发, 2024, 44(9): 194-203.
CHU X S, SHENG G Y, ZHANG H Y. GRA-KL-TOPSIS evaluation model for intelligence of coal mine production system based on game theory[J]. Mining Research and Development, 2024, 44(9): 194-203.
[13] 向韫. 基于DEMATEL法的充填管道磨损风险评估可拓云模型[J]. 矿业研究与开发, 2024, 44(6): 172-180.
XIANG Y. Extension cloud model for risk assessment of filling pipelines wear based on the DEMATEL method[J]. Mining Research and Development, 2024, 44(6): 172-180.
[14] 李万里, 袁志涛, 郑凯, 等. 基于可拓云理论的船舶避碰算法避让性能评价方法研究[J]. 武汉理工大学学报, 2024, 46(10): 121-131.
LI W L, YUAN Z T, ZHENG K, et al. Research on evaluation method of collision avoidance performance of ship collision avoidance algorithm based on extension cloud theory[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology, 2024, 46(10): 121-131.
