为预防和减少船舶燃料电池安全事故，以船用氢燃料电池为例，通过构建蝴蝶结模型（Bow-Tie）分析船用氢燃料电池泄漏爆炸事故致因，共提取出24项船用氢燃料电池泄漏爆炸致因因素。基于灰色理论（Grey Theory），应用决策实验室分析法（DEMATEL）计算各关键致因因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度和原因度，探究了各项关键致因因素之间的相互作用及其对船用燃料电池火灾爆炸事故的综合影响程度。利用解释结构模型（ISM）分析方法划分系统层次结构，建立系统因素的多级递阶层次结构模型，将系统因素分为3个类别，即直接因素、过渡因素和根本因素。对致因因素的属性分类可为有效防控船用燃料电池安全事故提供参考。
To prevent and reduce safety incidents involving marine fuel cells, this study uses marine hydrogen fuel cells as a case example. By constructing a Bow-Tie model to analyze the causes of leakage and explosion accidents in marine hydrogen fuel cells, a total of 24 contributing factors were identified. Based on grey theory, the Decision Analysis Methodology for Technical Evaluation (DEMATEL) was applied to calculate the influence degree, affected degree, centrality, and causality of each key contributing factor. This explored the mutual influence relationships among key factors and their comprehensive impact on marine fuel cell fires and explosions. The Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) approach was employed to delineate the system hierarchy, establishing a multi-level hierarchical model for system factors. These factors were categorized into three types: direct factors, transitional factors, and root factors. Classifying the attributes of causal factors provides a reference for effectively preventing and controlling marine fuel cell safety incidents.
2026,48(7): 61-68 收稿日期：2025-7-30
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2026.07.011
分类号：U677.1
基金项目：高技术船舶科研项目（CBZ04N23-07）；北京石油化工学院致远科研基金资助项目（2024002）
作者简介：金浩(1986-),男,博士,研究员,研究方向为安全风险辩识与评估等
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