为了更全面地评估集装箱船货舱火灾的风险等级，提出网络分析法（Analytic Network Process，ANP）、改进CRITIC法和突变级数法结合的集装箱船货舱火灾风险等级评估方法。以“船员-船舶-货物-环境-管理”5个关键要素为出发点，识别集装箱船货舱火灾风险因素，并建立风险评价指标体系。利用耦合主客观因素的ANP与改进CRITIC法获取评价指标的组合权重，再结合突变级数法判定集装箱船货舱火灾风险等级。实例及结果表明，该方法能够有效评估集装箱船货舱的安全状况，为相关部门的管理和应急操作提供依据。
In order to evaluate the fire risk level of container ship cargo hold more comprehensively, a method combining analytical network process (ANP), improved CRITIC method, and catastrophe progression method was proposed for assessing the risk grade of container ship cargo hold. Taking the five key elements of "crew-ship-cargo-environment-management" as the starting point, identify the fire risk factors of container ship cargo hold and establish a safety evaluation index system. The combination weight of evaluation index is obtained by using ANP and improved CRITIC method, and then the fire risk level of container ship cargo hold is determined by catastrophe progression method. The case and results show that the method can effectively evaluate the safety status of the cargo hold of the container ship and provide the basis for the management and emergency operation of the relevant departments.
2025,47(13): 181-185 收稿日期：2024-7-30
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2025.13.032
分类号：U698.4
基金项目：国家自然科学基金青年项目（52201408）
作者简介：田佰军(1970-),男,博士,教授,研究方向为航海安全保障、船舶货运技术等
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